The Hippo: October 27th, 2016

Dodging The Drought Bullet

Understanding the Short & Long Term Risks to NH's Foliage

Written by Ryan Lessard  (news@hippopress.com)

Photos: Courtesy Photo

Help or Harm from Above?

How the Presidential Race will Impact NH Races

Written by Ryan Lessard  (news@hippopress.com)

Images: Ryan Lessard

Photos: Courtesy Photo

The way presidential races tend to affect state races down the ballot is often described as a tidal force; generally, a solid candidate performance is a rising tide that lifts all boats. But the inverse is true as well, and analysts say 2016 is probably going to be the best example of that in modern memory.

The Flood

Dante Scala, a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire, compares the problems in the Republican party to a flood. And floods like these are more of a risk in swing states like New Hampshire, which has a roughly even balance between Republican and Democrat voters.

“If you [have] a case where one side for whatever reason is more powerful, more unified, one particular year than the other, it’s not like there are levees or barriers to the floods that are all that strong. It’s easy for the other side to get flooded out,” Scala said.

In this case, it’s the Republicans who are getting flooded out, and Scala says it’s Donald Trump who caused it. It can even affect smaller races in the state

House and Senate as popular incumbents or reliably Republican districts can no longer take the safety of those seats for granted.

“That’s a concern for Republicans today is how high will the flood waters get? How many candidates through no fault of their own are just kind of the victims of the flood?” Scala said.

Just how bad things have gotten for the Republican party this election was made more evident by a UNH poll released Oct. 19 that shows Hillary Clinton leading Trump by 15 points. Subsequent UNH polls of state races that had previously been too close to call showed a statistically significant lead for Democratic candidates.

“Republicans, I think, are just not happy with Donald Trump,” said Andy Smith at the UNH Survey Center.

The relative unpopularity of both candidates has been a constant factor throughout the election season, but Smith says Trump’s unpopularity in New Hampshire is more far-reaching than Clinton’s. He said Trump needs about 95 percent of state Republicans to vote for him to win New Hampshire, but he only has about 75 percent. Clinton has 87 percent of Democrats.

In a normal election year, pundits would be paying closer attention to demographics like age, education level and gender and which candidate is doing better among independent voters, but that’s assuming each party’s base will provide virtually full support to their party’s nominee. Those factors matter less this time around; still, Clinton has an edge among independents with 36 percent to Trump’s 24 percent.

Likewise, Trump is very unpopular among women, who are a majority in the state. Clinton is leading among women in the state 57 percent to 30 percent, and she holds a 12 point lead among women nationally according to an Oct. 25 CNN poll.

“You can’t underestimate the importance of female voters in New Hampshire. And the way the gender gap is playing out so far nationally, you can’t help but think that’s going to resonate here in New Hampshire,” Scala said.

Trump is also unpopular among voters with college degrees, and New Hampshire has one of the best-educated populations in the nation.

In New Hampshire, Trump leads among voters with a high school education or less (47 percent to 32 percent) while Clinton is doing better with college educated voters (47 percent to 30 percent).

These factors are working against Trump, but the story the polls tell is more directly related to recent events. In particular, analysts point to the 2005 tape of Trump on the set of Access Hollywood talking in lewd detail about groping women.

While many of Trump’s past comments shocked and awed, they were easily dismissed as aspects of his bombastic personality. These comments, though, have been dubbed by media commentators and politicians on both sides of the aisle as descriptions of “sexual assault.”

The fallout was immediate, with major Republicans who supported him in the past — including New Hampshire’s own Sen. Kelly Ayotte — withdrawing support and announcing their intention to vote for someone else in the election.

It was poorly timed for Trump as the tapes were released just before the second debate. After denying when asked by moderators if he had ever done the things he described to women, Trump faced allegations from multiple women who emerged to accuse him of sexually assaulting them in the past.

Early state polls that came out soon after showed little effect among voters; in fact, a WBUR/MassInc poll showed the race in New Hampshire tightening between Trump and Hillary with a difference of 3 percentage points. But Smith said that’s not too surprising, since it usually takes about two weeks for an election event like this to sink in with voters. The more recent UNH polls, Smith said, reflects the fallout of those comments for Trump and other GOP candidates in New Hampshire. Clinton, who already led in the state by 9 points in August, gained another 6 after the video.

Riptide Year

The party of Lincoln seems to be in dire straits, with some columnists already writing its obituary. This started during the Republican National Convention and continued after Trump called House Speaker Paul Ryan — the highest-ranking elected official in the GOP — a “weak and ineffective leader” on Twitter.

Saint Anselm College political science professor Chris Galdieri said these developments are historic.

“I think what we’re seeing on the presidential side is a Republican party that just does not know what to do with itself. You’ve never had a situation where you have so many people within the party explicitly rejecting their party’s nominee,” Galdieri said. “Even if you go back to past blowouts like Barry Goldwater in 1964, what you saw were a lot of Republicans who would not want to talk about it, or just decline to say who they were going to vote for. …

This is just literally unprecedented, what we’re seeing.” Scala said this affects the New Hampshire GOP as well.

“New Hampshire Republicans going forward would face some difficulties if they become kind of identified as the party of ‘angry white voters,’” Scala said. “That’s an identity problem that the Republicans need to solve.”

Assuming this year is going to be a big success for Democrats in New Hampshire and beyond, how would that compare to past “wave” years?

Spiliotes said the 2006 Democratic takeover and the 2010 Tea Party wave were both reactions to unpopular incumbents, presidential administrations from the opposite party and frustrations over current events (like the war in Iraq for 2006 and the recession in 2010). They were also both midterm elections. The 2008 election, which saw Barack Obama get elected (then a junior Senator who seemed like the outsider in the primary against Hillary Clinton) and

Democrats keeping their majorities in the House and Senate. But that is not a wave year in the strictest definition, Spiliotes said.

How does all this compare to 2016? If the predictions of a Democratic takeover in New Hampshire — and to a lesser extent in Congress — become a reality, it will be thanks to forces that behave like the opposite of a wave.

“It’s almost like in the reverse direction. … It’s sort of the reverse of the normal dynamics of a wave election,” Spiliotes said.

Rather than Democrats being propped up by a swell of support for their nominee or united by a common enemy in the form of an unpopular incumbent, war or economic woes, Spiliotes said Republicans might be pulled out to sea by a riptide.

Key to all of this is party unity. While divisions are clear at the national level, they’ve also played a part in New Hampshire. Republicans are not campaigning as a team. Some major GOP candidates like Ayotte and gubernatorial candidate Chris Sununu called on Republican Congressional District 1 Congressman Frank Guinta to resign last year over his campaign finance problems. Some candidates support Trump unapologetically while others hedge or don’t support him at all. Ayotte and Guinta, both incumbents, faced primary challengers, while their opponents ultimately did not.

New Hampshire Democratic Party Chair Raymond Buckley says GOP candidates are fighting like it’s every man for themselves. Meanwhile, he says Democratic candidates are running as a team from the top down.

“The real big difference is we have a ticket that is united and working together,” he said.

It’s also well funded compared to past elections. Buckley said thanks to an aggressive fundraising campaign that started last year, they had a stronger grassroots infrastructure. In 2012, they had about 110 to 120 field workers and about 18 offices. This year, they have about 150 field workers and 27 offices.

And if you’ve seen a lot of mailers from the NHDP, Buckley said they’ve spent “a couple million” on that this year.

Down Ticket

As recently as Oct. 6, Sen. Kelly Ayotte was running ahead of Trump, apparently not getting bogged down by the negative associations with the top of her party’s ticket, when a Suffolk University poll showed her leading Gov. Maggie Hassan in the U.S. Senate race by 6 percentage points.

Now, the tables have turned. Ayotte is trailing Hassan by 8 points among likely voters and 9 points when undecided voters are pressed to make a choice, according to an Oct. 20 UNH poll.

The 2nd Congressional District is considered safe for Democrats either way, so political analysts like Dean Spiliotes predict incumbent Ann Kuster will handily defeat her Republican challenger, Jim Lawrence.

“The district has, in the years that I’ve lived in New Hampshire, I’ve watched it gradually shift to the left. That doesn’t seem to be changing,” Spiliotes said.

He said even before recent events Democrats were considered to have an edge in House races, but the 1st Congressional District (between Republican Frank Guinta and Democrat Carol Shea-Porter) would probably have been tight if Clinton’s unpopularity were to depress Democratic and independent turnout.

While turnout seems to favor Democrats based on more recent polls, Spiliotes said another wild card is independent candidate Shawn O’Connor, who originally ran as a Democrat in the primary. O’Connor’s campaign has outspent Shea-Porter’s but hasn’t raised as much.

In another UNH poll released Oct. 20, Democrat Colin Van Ostern came out ahead of Republican Chris Sununu in the governor’s race, 41 to 35 percent. When undecided voters are included, the gap shortens to 44 to 38 percent. However, a majority of voters are still undecided and Sununu leads slightly among independent voters with 35 percent to Van Ostern’s 31 percent. Just weeks before, Sununu was ahead of Van Ostern in a Suffolk poll by 4 points.

Spiraling or Turning Out

Many of the rosier scenarios for state Republican candidates hinge on a narrow victory for Clinton, according to Scala.

“If Trump loses by 4 points in New Hampshire, then that’s not so bad. Because maybe Ayotte wins narrowly, maybe Sununu wins narrowly and maybe Republicans keep their majority in the state legislature,” Scala said. “But if it’s not 4 points, if it’s 7 or 10, that’s another order of magnitude of difficulty that down-ticket Republicans face.”

So Clinton’s 15-point lead in the most recent poll could mean a virtual Democratic takeover. This is mostly to do with turnout trends.

While Republican voters may not have anything against the Republican candidates down the ticket, their disenchantment with Trump may demotivate them from going to the voting booth.

“When that happens … when the leaders of a party are in disarray and renouncing the party’s nominee or distancing themselves, you probably get a lot of people who just get disgusted and stay home,” Galdieri said.

Smith says that besides the 75 percent GOP support for Trump (see page 15), there are some signs in the polling process that might lend credence to the likelihood of low Republican turnout. He points to something called the Spiral of Silence theory.

“If people perceive their candidate to be ... unpopular, a candidate who’s not socially acceptable, they’re less likely to put a yard sign in their yard or a bumper sticker on their car, they’re less likely to talk to their neighbors at cocktail parties and so forth about their support for a candidate and they’re also less likely to talk with pollsters about it,” Smith said.

While conducting the UNH polls, Smith found it harder than usual to get Republicans on the phone. That, he says, tends to correspond to low turnout.
Recent polls also showed a strong Democratic advantage in the New Hampshire House, Senate and Executive Council.

The balance of power in New Hampshire is precarious and easily swayed, but to understand just how overwhelming a force the election year is expected to be, one need only look at what’s happening with the U.S. House, which before the Access Hollywood tape came out was expected by all to continue to have a Republican majority. Now even that safety is in doubt.

And if there isn’t a divided government — or even if there’s a less divided government — at the federal level, experts say chances are the Granite State won’t have a divided government either. That will be a change of pace we haven’t seen since before the 2010 midterms.  

Quick Q&As with Executive Council Candidates

Written by Ryan Lessard  (news@hippopress.com)

To paint a brief picture of who is running for the Executive Council, the Hippo sent each candidate a short questionnaire:

District 1

Republican Joseph Kenney

1. Yes or no, do you support building a commuter rail line that connects Boston to southern New Hampshire?
Yes, if there is a public/private partnership.

2. Yes or no, do you support funding for Planned Parenthood?
No.

3. Yes or no, do you support solar energy projects that aren’t funded by state taxes?
Yes, if there is a public/private partnership that reduces energy costs.

4. What general approach would you take to awarding contracts?
First approach is that I read the contract. I look for a competitive bid process and I look at that scoring and then I evaluate the merits of the Request for Proposal (RFP), the proposed award and then I determine the type of service and value being provided. I hate sole source contracts and major contracts awards to vendors out of side. We should keep the work and employment here in New Hampshire.

5. What will you look for when considering nominees for the courts and state agency heads?
I look for someone who [is] from New Hampshire who knows the people, participates in community, non-profit and state activities and who has the respect of his or her peers. I expect them to be educated, have the appropriate degrees within their profession, diversified work experience and close understanding of New Hampshire statutes. I also try to understand what their management style is and legal philosophy to better understand what type of manager or judge they might be.

6. How do you order your coffee at the drive-thru?
Hot mocha with cream, every time.

Democrat Mike Cryans

1. Yes or no, do you support building a commuter rail line that connects Boston to southern New Hampshire?
Yes, if it’s part of a comprehensive infrastructure package.

2. Yes or no, do you support funding for Planned Parenthood?
Yes.

3. Yes or no, do you support solar energy projects that aren’t funded by state taxes?
Yes.

4. What general approach would you take to awarding contracts?
In awarding contracts it is important to listen to experts and constituents, including those with dissenting opinions, and decide based on the best interests of the state and its citizens. I will try to award contracts whenever possible to in-state groups.

5. What will you look for when considering nominees for the courts and state agency heads?
When considering nominees for the courts, I will look for highly qualified candidates with awareness and knowledge of alternative programs regarding substance abuse like Drug Courts to try to curb the opioid epidemic. I will do my best to be an advocate for qualified nominees from District 1 for state agency heads.

6. How do you order your coffee at the drive-thru?
I am not a coffee drinker.

District 2

Republican Sam Cataldo

1. Yes or no, do you support building a commuter rail line that connects Boston to southern New Hampshire?
Yes, if the rail company pays all of the cost.

2. Yes or no, do you support funding for Planned Parenthood?
No.

3. Yes or no, do you support solar energy projects that aren’t funded by state taxes?
Yes.

4. What general approach would you take to awarding contracts?
For someone who worked as a contractor for over 20 years the following may apply: to provide the best solution; the value and address the requirements as addressed in the contract requirement, to assure the work standards are fully comprehensible to the work as outlined with the worker experience, and that they meet State requirements and contacts that comply also with federal requirements, and consumer protection shall be adhered in all contracts.

5. What will you look for when considering nominees for the courts and state agency heads?
Experience in the state and federal system will be a plus. Education, background in business, that they are all responsible and accountable to the citizens of New Hampshire only, and that all will be administers of the affairs of the state as defined in the New Hampshire constitution, and New Hampshire statutes.

6. How do you order your coffee at the drive-thru?
I never order coffee at any drive-thru. I walk in and order orange juice, bottled only, or a soda with no ice.

Democrat Andru Volinsky

1. Yes or no, do you support building a commuter rail line that connects Boston to southern New Hampshire?
Yes.

2. Yes or no, do you support funding for Planned Parenthood?
Yes.

3. Yes or no, do you support solar energy projects that aren’t funded by state taxes?
Yes.

4. What general approach would you take to awarding contracts?
I would like our procedures to be streamlined and efficient. I want to understand the context in which the contract will exist before the Council approves the deal so as to avoid a situation like Dartmouth-Hitchcock’s announcement of economic troubles and layoffs right after winning a contract. I want the state’s spending on its contracts to favor local businesses, favor businesses that take care of their employees by way of livable wages and decent benefits and to favor businesses that believe climate change is real and that are doing something about it.

5. What will you look for when considering nominees for the courts and state agency heads?
I will look for nominees that are from diverse backgrounds. While all nominees must be well qualified by education and experience, I especially want nominees who are intellectually curious and creative. I want good people working in our agencies and in our courts who understand that we serve the people of the state and who seek innovative ways to provide that service.

6. How do you order your coffee at the drive-thru?
I don’t. My favorite three coffee shops are [Cafe] La Reine, the Works and True Brew. None have a drive-through!

District 3

Republican Russell Prescott
1. Yes or no, do you support building a commuter rail line that connects Boston to southern New Hampshire?
No.

2. Yes or no, do you support funding for Planned Parenthood?
Depends on their merits.

3. Yes or no, do you support solar energy projects that aren’t funded by state taxes?
Yes, with local control.

4. What general approach would you take to awarding contracts?
An open bid process to find the most affordable provider to serve the people of New Hampshire with the highest quality and best service.

5. What will you look for when considering nominees for the courts and state agency heads?
Integrity, character, demonstrated experience serving others.

6. How do you order your coffee at the drive-thru?
Changes day by day.

Democrat Beth Roth

1. Yes or no, do you support building a commuter rail line that connects Boston to southern New Hampshire?
Yes.

2. Yes or no, do you support funding for Planned Parenthood?
Yes.

3. Yes or no, do you support solar energy projects that aren’t funded by state taxes?
Yes.

4. What general approach would you take to awarding contracts?
I draw up contracts daily in my business law practice. The Executive Council evaluates contracts to ensure an appropriation made by the legislature is spent for the intended purpose. That process should happen in the most efficient way possible. Holding up contracts for frivolous or partisan reasons, such as we saw with Planned Parenthood’s, is a grave disservice to the people of New Hampshire.

5. What will you look for when considering nominees for the courts and state agency heads?
As an attorney and mental health counselor, I have been in courtrooms where I felt the judge was misassigned. It’s important to evaluate nominees based on demonstrated competency and interest in the specific area to which they’re nominated. For instance, a judicial nominee for Drug Court needs to demonstrate an understanding and interest in mental health issues and show fairness and compassion.

6. How do you order your coffee at the drive-thru?
Two creams, no sugar.

District 4

Republican Joe Kelly Levasseur

1. Yes or no, do you support building a commuter rail line that connects Boston to southern New Hampshire?
No.

2. Yes or no, do you support funding for Planned Parenthood?
No.

3. Yes or no, do you support solar energy projects that aren’t funded by state taxes?
Yes.

4. What general approach would you take to awarding contracts?
Read each contract thoroughly so as not to have instances like the crisis we have with Dartmouth-Hitchcock Hospital and the Drug Crisis Contracts that my opponent recently voted for. I expect open and honest bidding with contracts being awarded on merit, not familiarity.

5. What will you look for when considering nominees for the courts and state agency heads?
Judges must have a patient temperament. Both judges and agency heads must be extremely hard-working, ethical people, have a thorough understanding of our state and federal constitutions and real-world experience in the courtroom or department they seek to administer.

6. How do you order your coffee at the drive-thru?
Black, always and only.

Democrat Chris Pappas

1. Yes or no, do you support building a commuter rail line that connects Boston to southern New Hampshire?
Yes.

2. Yes or no, do you support funding for Planned Parenthood?
Yes.

3. Yes or no, do you support solar energy projects that aren’t funded by state taxes?
Yes.

4. What general approach would you take to awarding contracts?
I use a number of criteria to evaluate contracts including: how the vendor was selected to ensure it was a fair, competitive process; the vendor's ability to do the work and meet the time frame; how the contract fits with laws and policies adopted by the state; and most importantly whether the contract is the best use of taxpayer dollars.

5. What will you look for when considering nominees for the courts and state agency heads?
During the confirmation process for major appointments, I focus on an individual's professional experience, community work, leadership qualities, temperament, and understanding of and vision for the role. Politics should play no role whatsoever in how nominees are chosen or in terms of how nominees will conduct themselves in the position.

6. How do you order your coffee at the drive-thru?
I am not a coffee drinker, but I make myself tea (black) every morning at my restaurant.

District 5

Democrat Daniel Weeks

1. Yes or no, do you support building a commuter rail line that connects Boston to southern New Hampshire?
Yes.

2. Yes or no, do you support funding for Planned Parenthood?
Yes.

3. Yes or no, do you support solar energy projects that aren’t funded by state taxes?
Yes.

4. What general approach would you take to awarding contracts?
I will work with state commissioners to ensure all contracts are the result of a competitive bidding process and that qualified New Hampshire contractors are encouraged to apply. I will then approve "best-value" contracts which take into account price, quality, expertise, and past performance (including labor and environmental standards) in order to maximize long-term ROI for the taxpayers.

5. What will you look for when considering nominees for the courts and state agency heads?
I believe individuals in appointive leadership should be capable public servants who broadly reflect New Hampshire's population. I will seek out and recommend highly qualified individuals who bring the experience, independence, and sound judgment necessary to succeed at their role, as well as a demonstrated commitment to public service and increased diversity. I do not believe in partisan/ideological tests.

6. How do you order your coffee at the drive-thru?
Sorry, Dunkin’, my wife has turned me on to tea. Or anything that’s served with New Hampshire maple syrup.

Note: Republican District 5 candidate David Wheeler did not respond by press time.     

The Money Game

Where Is All This Outside Money Coming From?

Written by Ryan Lessard  (news@hippopress.com)

Photos: Courtesy Photo

Spending has ramped up in the U.S. Senate race between Kelly Ayotte and Maggie Hassan in recent months, mostly with outside money from super PACs and so-called “dark money” advocacy groups.

Dark money groups are organizations that, unlike PACs, are not required to disclose its donors, but they’re not allowed to explicitly support a candidate. Super PACs and other independent spending groups are allowed to raise unlimited money with no contribution restrictions so long as they don’t coordinate with candidate campaigns, but they can coordinate with one another.

Robert Boatright, a professor of political science at Clark University in Worcester, Mass., has been following the money game closely. He said that by August, spending had already passed the $20 million mark.

By mid-September it reached $50 million, and now, toward the end of October, it has exceeded $70 million, according to OpenSecrets.org.

“By the time the election’s over, this is going to be by far not only the most expensive election that New Hampshire has seen, but probably arguably among the four or five most expensive Senate elections the U.S. has seen … in terms of outside money,” Boatright said.

As far as candidate money goes, it’s only a fraction of that. An analysis by OpenSecrets shows Ayotte’s campaign has raised money from industries like real estate, law firms, insurance, oil and gas and pharmaceuticals. Hassan’s campaign has raised money from law firms, women’s issues groups, nonprofits and the education sector.

According to available data online, outside money has dominated with more than $38.7 million in spending on behalf of Ayotte and more than $33.4 million on behalf of Hassan.

One of the biggest players on the pro-Ayotte side is a PAC called Granite State Solutions, Boatright said. It has spent more than $18.6 million for attack ads against Hassan, according to OpenSecrets. In Hassan’s corner is the Senate Majority PAC, which spent $11.3 million in ads supporting Hassan and attacking Ayotte. Behind Granite State Solutions are a number of out-of-state donors, the largest of which is Sheldon Adelson. While that PAC’s money is being spent entirely to help Ayotte’s race, the Senate Majority PAC is used for several races nationwide. Among the biggest donors to that PAC are George Soros, his son Alexander Soros and media mogul Fred Eychaner.

The second largest PACs, in terms of spending, on both sides are the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee ($7.6 million) and the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee ($6.8 million).

One “dark money” group (501c4) called One Nation, which has connections to former George W. Bush advisor Karl Rove, spent money attacking Hassan early in the campaign. It got the attention of Hassan and her backers for invoking the drug crisis and laying blame at Hassan’s feet for hampering the state’s response by vetoing the last budget. Critics called this “politicization” of a tragic situation, and even Ayotte openly denounced the ads.

“I never wanted these ads to be up there in the first place. That’s why I said, let’s do the People’s Pledge,” Ayotte said in a recent phone interview. “The thing with it is that [outside groups and billionaires] try to get these false negative ads out there, but the candidates do still control what they stand for. But it does flood the airwaves, no doubt.”

Controlling the tone and message of one’s campaign is still possible, she contends, but these super PAC and advocacy group ads act independently of a campaign and can muddy the waters.

Early in the race, Ayotte proposed the candidates sign a People’s Pledge, which would try to limit outside spending. Hassan rejoined with her own modified People’s Pledge that added a cap to campaign spending.

“In general, it’s hard to enforce those sorts of things in a race featuring an incumbent, because incumbents are able to raise money much more easily from political action committees, which tend to be from outside of the state. So, for the most part, outside spending tends to advantage non-incumbents,” Boatright said.

Ayotte hedges when asked about campaign finance reform that includes overturning Citizens United, the Supreme Court ruling that opened the floodgates of outside spending, saying she wants to be careful not to infringe on First Amendment rights.
Hassan says she wants to overturn it.

“That’s why I consistently work for campaign finance reform, first in the New Hampshire state Senate. Right after Citizens United was passed, I worked on a state-level disclosure bill. Then and now I support overturning Citizens United,” Hassan said in a phone interview.

Some of the trends with spending for the presidential race are having some impact now on the Senate race. Boatright said Republican donors were holding back on giving to Trump. Now that many are seeing his chances as a bad bet, they’re focusing on Congressional races.

“Clinton has a huge financial advantage over Trump. In terms of her own money, it’s been more like three to one,” Boatright said. “Trump has not been effective at raising money. He’s not managed to motivate traditional Republican donors. People who contribute to super PACs have looked more and more at the Senate. So there’s a huge difference.”

This might have given Ayotte a slight boost in recent weeks. Boatright said a conservative super PAC that formed seemingly overnight called Senate Leadership Fund has disclosed more than $50 million in independent expenditures, with more than $20 million from casino tycoon Sheldon Adelson. It’s planning on spending more than $20 million in six battleground states including New Hampshire, but we won’t fully know how much they’ve spent in the state until after the election.

But this year Republican ad spending has been divided and decentralized overall. Boatright said this is a symptom of an ideological split within the party, despite efforts by some like Rove to set himself up as the go-to central fundraiser for Republican candidates. Other folks like South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint have raised money from other factions within the party.

Meanwhile, Democratic groups are working together to make sure spending in New Hampshire is coordinated in support of Hassan.

“These groups can talk to each other about what they are doing, so there’s clearly a coordinated strategy to spend money on behalf of Hassan and to have everybody effectively take their turn so that nobody’s stomping over everybody else,” Boatright said.

So one week you’ll see ads funded by Planned Parenthood and the next week ads by the League of Conservation Voters.

In the end, however, it’s likely all the ad spending will amount to an arms race that keeps all things equal, since spending on each side is about equal.

Political analyst Dean Spiliotes says the spending outcome will likely be a wash and the race will depend on the larger forces of the presidential race. The big winners from all this spending will be the TV stations. In retrospect, this may leave big donors and PACs to reevaluate their strategies.

“I think this is something that will be researched for many years to come,” Spiliotes said.

Campaign Finance Numbers

Total outside spending
Kelly Ayotte: $38,715,064
Maggie Hassan: $33,447,281

Top super PACs

Granite State Solutions
Super PAC
Conservative
$18,657,191

Senate Majority PAC
Super PAC
Liberal
$11,369,239

Democratic Senatorial Campaign Cmte
PAC
Liberal
$7,614,170

National Republican Senatorial Cmte
PAC
Conservative
$6,807,167      

City of Tricks & Treats

Halloween Howl Returns to Downtown Concord

Written by Matt Ingersoll (listings@hippopress.com)

Photos: Courtesy Photo

Trick-or-treat, take selfies in costumes with cosplayers and superheroes and enjoy old-fashioned throwback playground games along North Main Street during Concord’s annual Halloween Howl.

The free event, tailored to the younger crowd of trick-or-treaters, will return on Friday, Oct. 28, with road closures beginning at 4 p.m. and festivities held from 5:30 to 7:30 p.m.

More than 75 surrounding businesses will open their doors to trick-or-treaters. Some even get creative with costumes and Halloween-themed lights of their own.

“In a typical year, we have about 5,000 people come out,” said Susan Sokul, event and communications coordinator for Intown Concord, which organizes the Howl every year. “It’s just a really fun wholesome sugar-fueled evening. … There is plenty going on and it’s really cool to see the creativity of some of the businesses.”

Sokul said any business in the vicinity of the festivities can participate, and how they choose to do so is usually up to them.

“People can expect a variety of things,” she said. “Sometimes they have a walk-through inside, and others are set up outside. Some decorate like crazy and create a Halloween motif where you would approach and get the candy … so you might be walking in and getting candy and enjoy creative Halloween decorations or a setup that adds even more fun to the night.”

But that’s just one fun feature of Halloween Howl. Liza Poinier, Intown Concord’s operations manager, said there are several other downtown events to look forward to.

“It’s really a party in the middle of the street,” Poinier said. “The biggest features are probably the dance party and the costume parade. At 6 p.m., the kids all line up for the costume parade that will start at the Clock Tower [on North Main Street] and go down to Pleasant Street and back again. It’s a very lively atmosphere and also a great social occasion for parents.”

Members of the Concord Fire Department and the Motorcycle and Mountain Bike Unit of the Police Department will also be visiting the Howl to interact with the community, offering their vehicles for kids to check out, Poinier said.

“We always have police and fire there for security, obviously, but this year they will be there more to interact with their community as well,” Poinier said. “We’ve kind of done that on and off over the years.”

New to this year’s Howl will be old-school playground games like hopscotch, jump rope and foursquare, in the middle of Main Street, thanks to Intown Concord’s partnership with the city’s Parks and Recreation Department.

“It will be a fun throwback element that doesn’t have any calories or sugar,” Poinier said.

Well, maybe a little bit of sugar.

“We’ll also have a hanging doughnut game courtesy of Dunkin’ Donuts where plain doughnuts will be hung on a pole and kids compete to eat the doughnuts with their hands behind their back,” Sokul said.

A continuing trend that’s been emerging at the Howl over the past couple years has been adult cosplayers dressed as superheroes, princesses and others, not to trick-or-treat, but to take photos with the kids.

“[Double Midnight Comics] started bringing their superheroes, and then once their other networks heard about it, we started getting pockets of people who found out about the Howl to come and show off their costumes,” Poinier said. “It’s been really fun to see some of the cosplayers get swarmed by all the little kids wanting to get their picture taken with them.”

Sokul added that it’s become an annual show to watch the cosplayers while kids wait in line to trick-or-treat.

“You see characters of all shapes and sizes decorating the streets and they actually act the parts, so that makes it really fun too,” she said.

Other offerings at the Howl will include a performance by the Nashville-based roots rock group Dusty Gray from 6 to 8 p.m. in Bicentennial Square. Restaurants like Puppy Love Hot Dogs and Bike and Bean will be selling hot dogs, coffee and more for the duration of the event.

Halloween Howl

Spooky Nightlife

Night at the Museum Costume Party Returns

Written by Matt Ingersoll (listings@hippopress.com)

Photos: Courtesy Photo

Adults who want to get into the Halloween spirit without spending the evening at a bar can put on their best costume and head to the annual Night at the Museum.

The 21-plus event will be held at the Millyard Museum on Friday, Oct. 28, from 7 to 11 p.m. and will feature live music and dancing, a cash bar, a costume contest, a silent auction, raffle prizes and more. The event was also chosen by the Manchester Young Professionals Network to celebrate its 12th birthday.

“They asked us if they could piggyback on it, and we’re honored that they’ve chosen us for that specific occasion,” said John Clayton, executive director of the Manchester Historic Association, which coordinates the event. “There’s always a challenge [as a museum] to engage a younger community and population, so we think this will be a great opportunity for the group to see what we do here.”

Costumes are encouraged, Clayton said. Volunteers and members of the museum will be dressed up as prominent historical figures from Manchester or the surrounding community, and they’ll play the part, too.

“There will be someone dressed as Mother Frances Warde from the Sisters of Mercy,” Clayton said. “We’ll also have Officer William Moher, who was the first police officer to be killed in the line of duty in Manchester. … Industrialist and philanthropist Frank P. Carpenter will be there, and we’ll also have Grace Metalious, author of Peyton Place, as well as other figures from Manchester’s past.”

For a $25 admission ticket, visitors will have access to various galleries that will feature food, drinks, live music and a silent auction.

“The silent auction items will consist of a wide array of materials from Amoskeag Beverages,” Clayton said, adding that a Beer of the Month subscription, in which the winner receives a free case of beer every month for a year, will be returning as a raffle item. “We’ll also have historic prints from the museum’s gift shop, as well as countless restaurant gift certificates from independent restaurants in Manchester. … As opposed to getting other people to try to overbid their items, people can take it right then on their own bid.”

Several items will also be taken from the auction to be presented as prizes for the winners of each category in the costume contest, Clayton said. Categories include a prize for the scariest costume, the funniest costume, the best pairs or multiples costume, and the costume that best highlights a historic aspect of the city of Manchester.

All proceeds from the event will go to the general fund at the Manchester Historic Association, which includes funding field trips for the city’s schools as well as adding to the Millyard Museum’s historical collection.    

Not Your Average Wines

Tasting Features Unique, Rare & Collectible Wines

Written by Angie Sykeny  (asykeny@hippopress.com)

Images: WineNot Boutique Courtesy Photo

Whether you’re looking for a unique gift or you want to treat yourself to something special, WineNot Boutique’s third annual Grand Wine Tasting will have all kinds of high-quality, exclusive and collectible wines from around the world to explore.

“We wanted to give people the opportunity to try something from each region, to travel the whole world of wine,” said Svetlana Yanushkevich, sommelier, wine educator and owner of WineNot Boutique and The Wine Steward. “With some of the wines, it will be the first time they’ve ever been available in New Hampshire.”

The tasting takes place at the Crowne Plaza Nashua on Thursday, Nov. 3, and will feature over 70 wines, including varieties from prestigious wineries such as Catena Zapata, JJ Prum, Mollydooker, Peju, Jadot and Alto Moncayo, and some from small boutique producers in Italy, France, Californica, Austria, Uruguay, Brazil, Argentina, Slovakia, Spain and South Africa.

All bottles at the tasting will be valued at $20 or higher; the selection of wines in the under-$20 price range tends to decrease significantly in quality, Yanushkevich said. High-quality wines are also more likely to be collectible, meaning they can be aged for many years in a wine cellar.

“We truly believe there’s a huge difference between a $10 wine and a $20 wine,” she said. “Most wines under $20 are what you call everyday wine — simple, lots of fruity flavors, and they all taste similar — but a higher-quality wine will taste like its terroir. … It brings you to the place where it came from.”

Tasters will have a unique opportunity to try wines that aren’t regularly available in New Hampshire or Massachusetts. These rare wines, most of which are from remote regions of the world, were transported in limited quantities exclusively for the tasting and The Wine Steward and WineNot Boutique shops.

The reason they are so hard to find, Yanushkevich said, is a catch-22.

“People aren’t comfortable spending money on something they don’t know,” she said. “With wines coming from different countries, there’s a high cost for shipping, and a lot of [distributors] don’t want to take the risk and bring these wines that will sit forever on the shelf, full of dust.”

To get the most out of the tasting, attendees should start with wines from colder climates, which tend to be lighter, and work up to the heavier wines from warmer climates, finishing with the dessert wines.

There will be artisan hors d’oeuvres from local producers to complement the wines, including cheese and fruit, Thai vegetable spring rolls, roasted red pepper hummus with carrots, celery and grilled flatbread; phyllo-wrapped brie with raspberry chambord compote; coconut rum shrimp with lime coconut drizzle and other appetizers prepared by the Crowne Plaza Executive Chef Todd Lytle.

Finally, wine lovers can try their luck at winning wine-related prizes at this year’s charity raffle: a private wine tasting party hosted by Yanushkevich for up to 40 people (valued at $500), a bottle of limited Two Hands Shiraz Ares 2006, Australia (valued at $250), and a wooden crate with 12 bottles of fine wines (valued at $250). Proceeds will support Great American Downtown’s holiday lighting project for downtown Nashua.

For Yanushkevich and WineNot Boutique, the Grand Wine Tasting is the culmination of their year working with wine.

“For many people, this is the season of harvest, and it is for us too,” she said. “We work so hard for the whole year, tasting hundreds of wines and choosing the wines for this special event, and this is our time to show people all the beautiful and exciting wines we were able to find.”

Time For A Reboot

TEDxAmoskeag Millyard Moves to Derry

Written by Kelly Sennott (ksennott@hippopress.com)

Photos: Courtesy Photo

Need inspiration? TEDxAmoskeagMillyard hits Derry Saturday, Nov. 12 — and this year, you might actually be able to get a ticket.

The event, now in its sixth year, moved from Southern New Hampshire University’s 200-seat auditorium to the Stockbridge’s 881-seat space in order to allow for more audience members; in 2015, it was sold out with a waiting list.

It’s independently-organized but licensed by TED and will feature a group of locally nominated or nationally known speakers — Kriss Blevens, Amy Cueva, Maribel Duran, Jay Gupta, Barbara Bradley Hagerty, Brett Houle, Adam Fitzgerald, Greg Moore, Suzanne Ketteridge, Jennifer Lague, Amirah Sackett, Carole Soule, Rob Spencer and Greg Tang — plus performers and TED Talks videos. All presentations will fall under the 2016 theme, “Recharge. Reimagine. Reboot.” About half to two thirds of the speakers are usually from southern New Hampshire, the rest from out of state, according to Eric Ratinoff, event lead organizer.

The presenters are chosen via nomination submissions — Ratinoff estimated there are normally between 50 and 75 each year — who range from national figures to local heroes. Organizers look for a diversity of speakers, people of all ages, races, professions, cultural backgrounds and experiences who have important stories to tell. Those chosen then work with coaches to help develop their presentations.

“I noticed after doing this for a couple years that a professor’s first draft sounds a lot like a lecture. A business professional’s sounds a lot like a PowerPoint presentation. Writers tend to write things that sound a bit like short stories. And none of those things is quite right for TEDTalks,” said David Hudson, who’s been a part of the TEDxAmoskeagMillyard speaker team since 2013. “It has the emotional impact of a sermon, the narrative arc, often, of a short story or an essay. It should have the logical flow of an academic piece or presentation. … In my mind, there’s a pretty high bar for a TEDTalk.”

It’s a huge undertaking to put on the volunteer-run event, but Ratinoff said the crew gets re-energized when they see the results.

“We realized it can be an incredibly impactful day. … We can challenge people’s assumptions and get them excited about ideas and give them new ways of seeing things,” Ratinoff said. “Every year this is done … there’s this sense that we made some magic happen. That’s reinforced when people come up to members of the team at the end of the day and say thank you. Some people have said this is a life-altering experience. When you get that kind of feedback, it makes it easier to roll up your sleeves again and get after it the next year.”

For Hudson, memorable presenters include Sy Montgomery, who talked about the intelligence of animals, and Jessica Higgins, whose topic was on PTSD. Other notable speakers from previous years include filmmaker and White House appointee for the Committee for People with Intellectual Disabilities Dan Habib; inventor, scientist and clean water advocate Deepika Kurup; and tap dance artist and Riverdance performer Aaron Tolson. The TEDxAmoskeagMillyard 2014 talk by Tania Simoncelli, “Should you be able to patent a human gene?,” was selected by the TED Editorial team to be posted on TED.com.

Seeing it live is much different from watching it on YouTube.

“The energy in the room is phenomenal. You’ve got a room full of people who share your passion for TEDTalks,” Hudson said.

TEDxAmoskeagMillyard

Taste of the Lakes

Uncorked event Features New Chef Demo, Spirits Vendors

Written by Angie Sykeny  (asykeny@hippopress.com)

Photos: Courtesy Photo

Experience the best of the Lakes Region’s food and drink at Lakes Region Uncorked, featuring samples of fine foods, wine, mead, cider, beer and, for the first time, spirits. Guests will also enjoy a new cooking and tasting session with a celebrity chef, a wall of wine raffle and a silent auction.

The fourth annual event takes place Thursday, Nov. 3, at Church Landing at Mill Falls in Meredith.

“It’s an opportunity for people to come together and enjoy what’s made in New Hampshire and what’s best about living in the Lakes Region,” said Joanne

Piper Lang, director of development at Lakes Region Community Services, which hosts Uncorked. “It’s a great event for both the vendors and the guests.”

In the tasting room, spirits vendors Tamworth Distilling, Tall Ship Distillery of Dover, Flag Hill Distillery of Lee, Haunting Whisper Spirits of Danbury and Black Cove Beverages of Meredith will join the lineup of wineries, breweries and other beverage producers. Food vendors will have gourmet items like chocolate, toffee, cake and cheesecake, artisan cheese and locally roasted coffee. There will also be an assortment of appetizers and hors d’oeuvres prepared by the Common Man Restaurant to complement the tasting.

Guests are encouraged to take their time and talk with the vendors about their products and how they’re made.

“The vendors are really passionate about what they do,” Lang said. “They love [Uncorked] because it’s more than just a tasting. … People usually spend a couple hours talking with them, so it’s an opportunity to showcase their products to people who are interested in what they’re doing.”

In addition to the spirits vendors, this year’s event will introduce another new feature: a small plates and pairings cooking and tasting session with Chef Kevin Halligan, owner and executive chef of Laconia Local Eatery. Halligan will demonstrate his creative cooking style, share recipes and offer food tips for the holiday season and beyond. Guests will be served small plates prepared by the chef, paired with some of the wines and spirits featured in the tasting room. Sessions will be held at 5:30 and 6:30 p.m. and will run for around 45 minutes. Separate tickets are required to participate.

For a $20 donation, guests can try their luck at the wall of wine raffle, where they’ll draw a numbered cork and receive the bottle of wine with the corresponding number.

“That’s one of the most popular things [at the event],” Lang said. “The wines can be worth a lot of money depending on which you pick. It’s a great thing for right before the holidays.”

A silent auction will have food- and drink-related prizes like a gift certificate for Tamworth Distilling, a “tower of toffee” from Hampshire Toffee, private tasting tours and restaurant gift certificates, as well as general prizes like golf and ski packages, a Boston Red Sox baseball signed by catcher Ryan Hanigan, flight passes and more.

Proceeds from Uncorked will help Lakes Region Community Services provide support for people living with disabilities in the Lakes Region.

Lakes Region Uncorked